21st Century Geopolitics and Investments | Admiral James Stavridis USN (Ret.), Partner and Vice Chairman, Carlyle | February 17, 2026“If this rotten regime tumbles, and I think there's a one in three chance it could, the theocracy could fail. If that happens, Iran could come out from under sanctions and that's a lot of oil hitting the world markets.”“21st Century Geopolitics and Investments” Retired Admiral James Stavridis, former supreme allied commander of NATO, and Partner & Vice Chairman of the global investment firm Carlyle, shares his insight on today’s world hotspots, including Iran, and potential investment opportunities, before a February 17, 2026 meeting of The Economic Club of Florida. Show notesAdmiral Stavridis took the Club on a world tour of potential investment opportunities. His first stop was in the Middle East. He foresees a peace treaty in Gaza implemented by the Palestinian Authority, Israel, the United Nations, President Trump’s Board of Peace, and the Arab League. “Gaza,” he said, “which has been on fire for two and a half years, I think, is headed toward a period of hopefully prolonged cease fire. That's good news for investors. It means investment in Israel makes more sense. It means investment in general in the region makes more sense. And all of us ought to feel it's a positive humanitarian development that 2.2 million Arabs, Palestinians are going to see some kind of relief in the situation they've been facing.” The admiral spoke just 11 days before the U.S.-Israeli bombing of Iran began on February 28, 2026, but had some things for investors to watch for, in the event of such an attack. “Number one, if it goes sideways and we end up in an ongoing conflict, the Iranians will respond by closing the Strait of Hormuz. There goes 30% of the world's oil bottled up for months. And they will attack Israel with ballistic missiles, and they'll attack U.S. bases in the region. We will get dragged into this. So you ought to be watching this for the dark end of the spectrum.” “If this rotten regime tumbles,” he continued, “and I think there's a one in three chance it could, the theocracy could fail. If that happens, Iran could come out from under sanctions, and that's a lot of oil hitting the world markets. So as investors, you ought to be thinking both at the dark end of the spectrum and positive outcomes.” As for Ukraine, Admiral Stavridis said Vladimir Putin and his ego are the problem. He pointed out that Ukraine is the breadbasket of Europe and is full of wheat and corn. Putin’s dream is alignment with China, and he is recruiting mercenaries from all around the world. Cuba is providing troops, and North Korea has more than 30,000 troops fighting in Ukraine. He said investors should be watching for a deal between Russia and Ukraine. “Number one, what if there is a deal, probably along the lines you see now, and Russia comes out from under sanctions?” he asked. “What about all that Russian oil hitting the markets? On the other hand, if we do this deal right, the rest of Ukraine, 80% of the territory, would be on a free, democratic path to the European Union. Forty million Ukrainians come to the west. That's not a terrible outcome.” He likened both Gaza and Ukraine to South Korea in 1955. The country had been devastated by war, but it now has the ninth largest economy in the world. It got there through reconstruction, and the same could apply to Gaza and Ukraine. The admiral said we have many disagreements with China, including fentanyl, cyber, critical minerals, trade and tariffs, and the artificial islands China is building in the South China Sea. There is also conflict between our navies. “We have the second largest Navy in the world,” he said. We have 295-ships - they have 360. They're building 20 ships a year. We're building five. Do the math. China also has a powerful cyber force. We have an Army, a Navy, a Marine Corps, a Coast Guard, and Air Force. We just built a Space Force. Good move. China has all those.” Taiwan has 23-million people, the 25th largest economy, and is the center of manufacturing for the highest end microchips. The military, though, is behind the times. Admiral Stavridis thinks they need more cruise missiles, air defenses, and cyber, and he adds that the country can afford them. He believes the U.S. and China will find a way to get along. “I think we can and we will get to a state of economic engagement with China that avoids decoupling. We'll know more this year. Why? Because our president, Donald Trump, is going to go to Beijing for a state visit. Wait for that theater. President Trump in the Great Hall of the People, President Trump in the Emperor's palace. It's going to be quite a few days. And then President Xi is coming to the United States. Those are good things.” He thinks we will develop a good relationship with Venezuela and pointed to Energy Secretary Chris Wright’s recent trip to Caracas. “The oil infrastructure of Venezuela is garbage. Needs to be rebuilt. Huge investment opportunity. The oil of Venezuela, although it is dirty, difficult to refine, it's oil, meaning if Iran's regime flips, if Russia comes back from under sanctions, and if the US lands the plane here, that's a lot of inexpensive energy flowing into markets.” He said he would buy Greenland, if it were available. He pointed out that large parts of the United States were purchased – the Louisiana Purchase, the Gadsden Purchase, and Alaska. And lastly, he considered India, the largest country by population. “India occupies this sort of neutral type, non-interventionist position. They can work well with China and Russia. They can work well with the United States, the European Union, and Japan. India is a good investment opportunity." Admiral Stavridis added some things for Club members to consider for investment opportunities:
(You can also view the entire Club meeting on YouTube.) Links and Resources Mentioned in this Episode
Date of recording February 17, 2026 |